Moon’s Risk of City-Killer Asteroid Impact Rises to 4.3%

Speedy Summary:

• Asteroid 2024 YR4, previously known as the “city-killer,” has no risk of impacting Earth but now carries a 4.3% probability of striking the Moon on december 22, 2032-up from an initial estimate of 3.8%.
• NASA resolute this updated impact probability using observations from the James Webb Space Telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera in May.
• The asteroid is approximately 174 to 220 feet in size, comparable to a 15-story building, with potential to carve a massive (1 km) crater into the Moon’s southern hemisphere if it strikes.
• Lunar impacts are rare; craters of this size form once every ~5000 years and would eject debris into near-Earth space potentially damaging satellites over time and creating brief meteor showers visible from Earth.
• The asteroid will remain out of observational reach until its return closer to Earth in 2028, when scientists will reassess its trajectory for new updates.

Indian Opinion Analysis:

The updated probabilities surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4 offer scientific insights into planetary defense mechanisms while underlining broader implications for India’s satellite programs. India’s meaningful investments in Low Earth Orbit satellites supporting navigation (NavIC), communication (GSATs), and remote sensing could see increased exposure risks if lunar ejecta materializes following an impact event in late 2032. While direct threats appear minimal due to expected debris size (<10 mm), long-term maintenance costs or adjustments may rise for affected missions. Moreover, such advancements highlight India's role within global astronomy collaborations-notable projects like india's Aditya-L1 solar observatory reinforce scientific capabilities relevant not just for terrestrial but extraterrestrial phenomena monitoring too. coordination efforts among space-faring nations may benefit readiness against future cosmic challenges akin to YR4 scenarios.Read More