Global Warming May Rise by 0.5°C Without Urgent CO2 Capture Efforts

Fast Summary

• Hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere to meet the 1.5°C climate warming target this century.
• The less ambitious 2°C target is nearly unattainable without notable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and aggressive emissions reductions.
• Carbon management technologies like direct air capture and tree planting remain controversial due to scale issues, with concerns they could justify continued emissions.
• New research by Candelaria Bergero suggests failing to manage CO2 could add up to 0.5°C warming by century’s end; reaching sub-1.5°C temperatures would require vast carbon management efforts alongside steep emissions cuts.
• Achieving the 2°C target without CDR demands a rapid annual reduction of global emissions by 16% from 2015 through 2050, an unlikely prospect given recent emission trends.
• Currently, only minimal progress in carbon capture initiatives exists-40 million tonnes captured annually from sources and about one million directly from air.

Indian Opinion Analysis

India faces significant challenges in balancing economic growth with its climate targets, especially given its reliance on coal for energy production and industrial processes. The findings highlight critical implications for India-a major emitter-as they illustrate the need for innovative solutions like large-scale deployment of renewable energy coupled with advancements in carbon capture technology. While global action is essential, countries like India must proactively invest in technology progress rather than solely relying on international collaboration or future innovations that remain unverified at scale.

The report also emphasizes urgency: annual emission reductions of over 16%, as noted for the less rigorous goal (2°C), signal a monumental task that will likely conflict with developmental priorities unless carefully planned transition pathways are laid out soon. For India, accelerating renewable projects alongside nature-based restoration initiatives-such as afforestation-may offer a practical route forward while supporting mitigation efforts globally.

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