IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for Second Half of Monsoon

Speedy Summary

• IMD Forecast: India is projected to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September 2025).
• Regional Predictions: Most parts of India, except Northeast and adjoining eastern regions, are expected to record normal rainfall in August.Above-normal rainfall is highly likely in September.
• First Half Recap: Between June and July,India received 474.3 mm of rain (6% surplus),with Himachal pradesh experiencing flash floods due to heavy rains. Northeast India recorded its fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall.
• Rainfall events: The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy events this year-the lowest figures in five years. Rainfall trends were influenced by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and low-pressure systems spanning July.
• Geographic Breakdown: Subdued rain is forecasted for the next two weeks but doesn’t meet “break monsoon” phase criteria; northeast/parts of central/southwestern areas may see below-normal precipitation overall.
• Agricultural Importance: Good monsoons are vital as agriculture supports about 42% of India’s population and contributes 18.2% to GDP; reservoirs also benefit from replenishment.

Indian Opinion Analysis

The IMD’s latest projections highlight a continuation of above-average monsoon performance-a critical factor for agriculture-dependent communities that drive over a significant portion of India’s economy. While much-needed rains offer relief to large swathes reliant on irrigation, persistent deficits in northeastern states reveal a concerning trend that may demand intensified regional water management strategies.

This year’s subdued extreme whether events compared to prior years might reduce disaster-related impacts like flash floods but still warrant infrastructure resilience planning considering localized heavy storms in areas such as Himachal Pradesh earlier this season.

As ENSO-neutral conditions prevail into October, future shifts toward weak La Niña could have implications for winter cropping patterns or broader climate forecasts requiring close monitoring by policymakers to remain adaptive against evolving conditions.

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