Ageing Trucks to Drive Replacement Demand in M&HCV Market

Quick Summary

• Truck Fleet Age: Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) in India are currently at their highest average age of 10 years, projected to fuel replacement demand.
• Industry Trends: Post-pandemic deferment of purchases and flat domestic M&HCV volumes contributed to ageing fleets. FY2024 showed flat YoY performance; FY2025 registered a 4% decline.
• Government Regulations: Mandatory scrapping of government-owned vehicles older than 15 years from April 2023 supports medium-term replacement demand.
• Manufacturer Outlook: Truck makers like Ashok Leyland and Volvo Eicher expect significant fleet replacement due to improved efficiency in newer models with telematics features.
• Sales Data & Shifts: since FY2010, approximately 37 lakh trucks have been sold. Recent replacements include BS6 trucks dominating sales, but around half the fleet averages over 11 years old. Replacement demand currently drives 60% of M&HCV sales.

Indian Opinion Analysis

The ageing condition of India’s medium and heavy truck fleet serves as both a challenge and an possibility for the nation’s commercial vehicle industry.With government regulations mandating outdated vehicle scrapping alongside the benefits offered by technologically advanced fleets (e.g., better mileage, faster turnaround), manufacturers can expect significant growth in the replacement segment. However, while momentum builds for fleet upgrades, industry volumes have yet to match ancient highs seen before FY2018-FY2019.

This shift marks a broader trend toward higher tonnage trucks that prioritize payload efficiency-a response tied directly to improvements in infrastructure enabling longer monthly travel distances for newer models versus older ones. From a sustainability standpoint,increased adoption rates may eventually see reductions in emissions as newer Bharat Stage standards dominate roadways over time.

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