During the current business cycle, Ark Invest believe real gross domestic product (GDP) growth could accelerate to 7% per year on average, surpassing that of any year since 1950. Seemingly outlandish, this estimate is consistent with the dramatic boost to real GDP growth during bursts of technologically enabled innovation in the past 2000+ years.
During the first thousand years AD, technology breakthroughs—including the development of the waterwheel and advanced infrastructure enabled by concrete—catalyzed activity to such an extent that real GDP would have increased 10x over the course of 16,500 years. Through 1500, agricultural innovation, notably the introduction of a plow able to work heavy European soils, improved food protection, boosting growth to a rate that would have multiplied real GDP 10-fold over 1,600 years. During the Enlightenment and first industrial revolution, economic growth was driven by the introduction of the steam engine, taking the amount of time for a 10x improvement in real GDP down to 720 years. Then, the internal combustion engine, the telephone, electrification, and the railroad combined to create another structural shift during the second industrial revolution, pushing the 10x increase in GDP down to 150 years. Finally, in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries, the integrated circuit, personal computers, and the internet combined to compress the 10x increase in economic well-being as measured by real GDP into fewer years than the average human lifespan: 65.
Globally, real economic growth could accelerate from 3% on average during the past 125 years to more than 7% during the next 7 years as robots reinvigorate manufacturing, robotaxis transform transportation, and artificial intelligence amplifies knowledge worker productivity.
Catalyzed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total* to more than 60% by 2030. As a result, the annualized equity return associated with disruptive innovation could exceed 40% during the next seven years, increasing its market capitalization from ~$19 trillion today to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
