Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Forecast Signals More Rain Ahead

Rapid Summary

• Another weather system,a low-pressure area,is expected to form in the Bay of bengal near north Odisha in the first week of September,according to meteorologists at Telangana Development Planning Society (TDPS).
• This system is highly likely to bring rain to North Telangana and the twin cities.
• August 2025 marked the wettest month in five years for Telangana with 80% excess rainfall (36 cm recorded so far) compared to the normal 21.6 cm.
• July typically sees heavy rainfall while August usually experiences moderate rains; however, this year has seen a reversal with only a 5% excess recorded in July.
• The unusual heavy rains are attributed to an active southwest monsoon coupled with a depression over the Bay of Bengal.
• Northern districts such as Medak, Kamareddy, Nizamabad, and Karimnagar have seen particularly heavy rains recently.
• Since June 2025,telangana has received about 70 cm of total rainfall – an excess of 25% when compared with its normal value for this period (56 cm).

– By comparison:
– June: Rainfall was below normal by about 20%.
– july: Rainfall showed a slight surplus at +5%.
– Heavy spells were concentrated between july 18-28 and from August onwards.

Indian Opinion Analysis

The current trend indicates unexpected changes in seasonal precipitation patterns stemming from an active southwest monsoon combined with disturbances like depressions over key areas such as the Bay of Bengal. While beneficial for groundwater recharge and reservoirs critical for agriculture-dependent regions like northern Telangana’s districts (Medak or Nizamabad), persistent downpours could challenge systems unprepared for flooding or waterlogging.

The shift where traditional dry-wet cycles within monthly distributions break pose new requirements adj mark trends-analysis