Nvidia will make 5 million B200/B300 which are the leading edge AI GPU chips. They could make about 10 million advanced next generation chips each year in about 2028.
Tesla Dojo 1 chips have small installed volume but Doge 2 and Doge 3 could surge in usage and production.
Doge chips are and will be tuned and optimized for the XAI and Tesla AI workloads. If those become the best specialized option then DOGE become high volume is a matter of XAI and Tesla being the number one LLM model which should happen again this month with Grok 3.5 and then installing by far the most chips. The video lays out how this can happen and the volumes of chips.
XAI has to have and hold a dominant lead with its AI models and AI data center build.
XAI and Tesla are currently building the largest AI data centers by far. XAI could have a million GPU data center by the end of this year.
This will be far larger than the unified memory data centers in one building being built by Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. The others are making 300 megawatt data centers in multiple buildings and often in different states. Google has a large number of TPUs but it is unclear how many are in the same building. Google is using its own TPUs, so Google is also not using Nvidia chips in most situations.
TSMC fabricates the Tesla Dojo chips used by Tesla and XAI and they make the Nvidia GPUs. The relative production depends upon percentage of wafers allocated to each customer.
If XAI gets $300 billion or more in funding and gets to a profitable business model to continue to expands its data center then the rapid build could see 10 million chip data centers each for XAI and Tesla by 2029. If half of those chips are Tesla Dojo chips then this would challenge the volume production of Nvidia’s advanced GPUs. Nvidia would still have more AI GPU revenue. The AI GPU margin for Nvidia could shrink from 75% to 50% if there was a viable Dojo second option.
Passing Nvidia would require XAI and Tesla to use nearly all Dojo 4 or Dojo 5 chips and then to start selling them to other companies.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
