# Crude nears $120, fiscal deficit target seen achievable despite risks

2026-10-25T12:11:24+00:00 | Business & Economy | Indian Opinion Desk

Corroboration: 2 independent outlets

Brent crude has crossed $117 per barrel and is near $120 as escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions and US-Iran fears keep supply risks elevated, analysts said. The Hindu Businessline reports economists see the price staying between $115 and $120 for some time, with the RBI’s second-half projections having assumed a baseline of $95 a barrel. CNBC TV18 notes the US Federal Reserve’s October 27 to 28 meeting and weekly inventory data will guide the next move. For India, higher crude raises pressure on the rupee, inflation and the current account, but The Hindu Businessline says tailwinds may cushion the fiscal impact. It reports that the RBI’s bumper dividend of Rs 2.87 lakh crore, buoyant tax collections, strong disinvestment (70 per cent of target by end August) and a Rs 1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund mean the 4.3 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit target is achievable, with slippage likely not beyond 4.4 to 4.5 per cent. Fertiliser subsidy outgo has already crossed Rs 1.03 lakh crore in five months against a Budget estimate of Rs 1.70 lakh crore.

## Indian Opinion Analysis

Both sources report the same crude price rise and geopolitical drivers, but their emphasis diverges. The Hindu Businessline leads on the domestic fiscal impact, quoting three economists who argue that tax buoyancy, RBI dividends and the stabilisation fund keep the deficit target within reach. CNBC TV18 leads on market volatility, the Fed decision and supply-side interventions, quoting brokers who flag upside price risk. Neither source understates the threat, but The Hindu Businessline foregrounds cushioning mechanisms that CNBC TV18 omits, while CNBC TV18 foregrounds market cues absent from the other. A balanced reading: crude near $120 is a material headwind, but India’s fiscal buffers may limit the damage. The Fed’s October 27 to 28 meeting and weekly US inventory data are the next concrete triggers.

## Coverage

Coverage: 2 sources, 2 neutral
- thehindubusinessline.com (neutral report) <https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/crude-oil-near-120-to-intensify-headwinds-for-economy-but-tailwinds-likely-to-reduce-pressure/article71623034.ece>
  Leads on domestic fiscal impact, presents economist views without editorialising.
- cnbctv18.com (neutral report) <https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/crude-nears-120-dollar-as-west-asia-risks-collide-with-fed-rate-decision-analysts-20018784.htm>
  Leads on global market and Fed angle, quotes analysts without taking sides.

This brief was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry.

Tags: Brent crude, crude oil, fiscal deficit, Reserve Bank of India, US Federal Reserve, West Asia tensions
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