# Farm fires begin, Super El Nino may worsen winter pollution 2026-09-23T18:32:08+00:00 | Governance | Indian Opinion Desk Corroboration: 1 independent outlet Forty-seven farm fire cases have been recorded across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh between September 15 and 23, according to satellite data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute. Experts warn this stubble burning season could be severe due to a Super El Nino that is expected to reduce western disturbances, which normally bring rain that washes away pollutants. The peak burning period is likely to coincide with Diwali on November 8, when winter conditions set in. Punjab has recorded a rain deficit of over 35% this monsoon, delaying crop sowing and potentially extending stubble burning beyond November 30. The contribution of farm fires to Delhi's PM2.5 is expected to be higher this year, with winds slowing down and pollutants accumulating. Last year, Punjab reported 5,114 farm fires, down from 10,909 in 2024, while Haryana recorded 662 incidents. Uttar Pradesh saw a rise from 6,142 to 7,290 cases. Experts say effective enforcement and on-ground residue management will be critical to reducing the impact. ## Indian Opinion Analysis The Super El Nino condition, with Pacific Ocean temperatures rising over 3 degrees Celsius, is a rare climatic event that directly reduces the number of western disturbances. These disturbances are the primary mechanism that clears Delhi's winter air every few weeks. Without them, pollutants from farm fires, vehicle emissions and construction dust will accumulate for longer periods. The Commission for Air Quality Management in the National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas (CAQM) oversees emergency measures such as the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). With Diwali coinciding with the peak burning period, the agency may need to impose stricter curbs earlier than usual. The key indicator to watch is the daily farm fire count in Punjab and Haryana from mid-October, which will signal whether the seasonal spike materialises as forecast. ## Coverage - timesofindia.indiatimes.com Tags: Delhi, Gufran Beig, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Punjab, stubble burning, Super El Niño Canonical: https://indianopinion.org/farm-fires-begin-super-el-nino-may-worsen-winter-pollution/ License: Summary and commentary (c) Indian Opinion, reusable with attribution. Facts belong to the linked sources. Cite: https://indianopinion.org/farm-fires-begin-super-el-nino-may-worsen-winter-pollution/#story-in-brief