Global Temperatures Could Be Higher Than Predicted

Fast Summary

• Researchers propose a more accurate way to calculate global surface air temperature (GSAT),revealing the world has warmed 6% more than previously estimated.
• The updated data indicate that the planet could breach the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C climate goal as early as 2028, rather than the initially projected timeframe of 2030-2035.
• The analysis by researchers Gottfried Kirchengast and Moritz Pichler suggests GSAT reflects warming better compared to GMST, traditionally used in global climate assessments.
• Their new “benchmark record” puts current warming at approximately 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels and reduces uncertainties frequently enough associated with prior methods of measuring temperatures.
• Scientists are debating whether GSAT should replace GMST for tracking climate change, given its improved precision versus GMST’s consistent scaling with other environmental impacts (e.g., sea level rise).
• Critics highlight that multiple methods for calculating warming-without a single standard-could complicate policy evaluations related to paris targets.

Image Caption: Global warming is making wildfires more frequent and destructive (Photo Credit: Noah Berger/associated Press/Alamy).