# Gulf oil flows top prewar levels, but shipping costs surge sevenfold 2026-10-21T08:20:20+00:00 | World & Diplomacy | Indian Opinion Desk Corroboration: 3 independent outlets Middle East oil flows have surpassed prewar levels, averaging over 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October, up from the prewar average of 23.3 million, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz itself remain at about 82% of prewar volumes, with an improvised US-protected shuttle system and pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the UAE helping to bypass the waterway. Around 30 attacks on vessels were reported in October, about 20% of all ship attacks recorded during the war, Windward data shows. However, shipping costs have surged about sevenfold over the past year to over $20 a barrel, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. The increase includes $7 for the war-risk premium through Hormuz and $4 each for higher fuel and ship-to-ship transfers. High freight rates may reduce refiner demand for crude and change established trading patterns, the bank warned, though it maintains its forecast for Brent to fall to $90 a barrel by year-end. Brent crude traded at around $108 a barrel on 20 October. Traders remain concerned that the improvement in Hormuz may not be sustainable, with thinning global inventories leaving little margin for error. Update, 21 October 2026: Hindustan Times now also reports the story, confirming Kpler’s data on oil flows exceeding 24 million barrels a day, with Hormuz flows at 82% of prewar levels. It adds that Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel on Tuesday, 20 October, and that traders worry the improvement may not be sustainable, with global inventories thin. It also notes US air cover provides a protected corridor, while about 30 ship attacks were reported in October, accounting for 20% of all war attacks. ## Indian Opinion Analysis All three outlets report the same factual story: Kpler data shows Middle East oil flows exceeded 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October, above the prewar 23.3 million figure, while Hormuz transits remain at 82% of prewar levels. Times of India and Hindustan Times, both relying on a Wall Street Journal report, lead with flows and the improvised shipping system under US protection. The Hindu Business Line, by contrast, leads with Goldman Sachs’ freight-cost analysis: rates have surged to over $20 a barrel from $3 a year ago. The Business Line’s framing is driven by the bank’s warning that high costs could reduce refiner demand and reshape trade patterns, while the other two sources foreground the system’s operational resilience. ## Coverage Coverage: 3 sources, 3 neutral - timesofindia.indiatimes.com (neutral report) Leads with resilience and US-protected shipping system - thehindubusinessline.com (neutral report) Leads with Goldman Sachs on freight costs and price risk - hindustantimes.com (neutral report) Leads with flows but notes sustainability fears and Iran's weakened leverage This brief was synthesised by AI from the 3 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Tags: Brent crude, Goldman Sachs, Iran, Kpler, Strait of Hormuz, United States Canonical: https://indianopinion.org/gulf-oil-flows-top-prewar-levels-as-shipping-costs-surge-sevenfold/ License: Summary and commentary (c) Indian Opinion, reusable with attribution. Facts belong to the linked sources. Cite: https://indianopinion.org/gulf-oil-flows-top-prewar-levels-as-shipping-costs-surge-sevenfold/#story-in-brief How this brief was made: an AI model read the reports linked above and wrote this summary and analysis, which were published automatically. Published briefs are sampled every hour by an automated quality check; the editor verifies its findings and approves corrections, and corrected briefs carry a dated correction line. Stance labels are editorial classifications of how each outlet framed this story, assigned by the same model, not ratings of the outlets. We do no original reporting. Methodology: https://indianopinion.org/ai-use-policy/