# IMD forecasts warmer, drier November for most of India 2026-10-31T14:05:54+00:00 | Governance | Indian Opinion Desk Corroboration: 5 independent outlets (6 source reports) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most of India in November, with the exception of some Himalayan foothill areas where normal to below-normal readings are likely. Minimum temperatures will also be above normal over most of the country, except parts of central and eastern India. Rainfall is expected below normal for most regions, with the national total likely at 77 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 29.7 mm. Normal to above-normal rain is forecast for parts of central, northwest and northeast India, including key wheat-growing areas such as Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, BusinessLine reports. Below-normal rainfall is expected over west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab, though these are largely irrigated, and over Rajasthan, much of Gujarat and the South Peninsula, where the northeast monsoon is also likely to be weak. New Indian Express reports a cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay of Bengal, named ‘Morasu’, expected to impact the Andhra coast from 2 November. The IMD said very strong El Niño conditions prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue through November-December. The October all-India average maximum temperature of 32.43°C was the highest since 1901, and the monthly rainfall deficit narrowed from 48 per cent on 28 October to 31 per cent by 31 October. Update, 31 October 2026: New Indian Express reports a fresh cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay of Bengal, named ‘Morasu’, expected to impact the Andhra Pradesh coast from 2 November until the early morning of 3 November, a development not covered by The Hindu, Orissa Post, BusinessLine or India Today. India Today and New Indian Express also follow the same IMD forecast shared by the other outlets, with no conflicting figures. ## Indian Opinion Analysis The Hindu and Orissa Post carry essentially identical wire copy from the IMD briefing, reporting the key figures on temperature and rainfall without added context. BusinessLine adds a focused agricultural lens, naming specific wheat-growing regions and deficit percentages for October, and quoting IMD Director-General M Mohapatra on El Niño's gradual weakening from January 2027. New Indian Express goes further by reporting a fresh cyclonic disturbance over the Bay of Bengal, naming it ‘Morasu’ and giving an impact window of 2 to 3 November for the Andhra coast, a concrete near-term event the other outlets omit. India Today, relying on the PTI wire, stays closer to the baseline numbers. The uniform base is the IMD data, the value difference lies in what follow-up each outlet chooses, from agriculture to an impending storm. ## Coverage Coverage: 4 sources, 4 neutral - Syndicated copy - thehindu.com Wire copy, uniform with other wire-based reports - orissapost.com Wire copy, uniform with other wire-based reports - thehindubusinessline.com (neutral report) Adds detailed wheat-region and October deficit figures - newindianexpress.com (neutral report) Includes cyclone Morasu forecast not in other sources - indiatoday.in (neutral report) Wire copy, uniform with PTI feed This brief was synthesised by AI from the 4 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Tags: El Nino, IMD, India Meteorological Department, M Mohapatra Canonical: https://indianopinion.org/imd-forecasts-above-normal-temperatures-below-normal-rain-for-november/ License: Summary and commentary (c) Indian Opinion, reusable with attribution. Facts belong to the linked sources. Cite: https://indianopinion.org/imd-forecasts-above-normal-temperatures-below-normal-rain-for-november/#story-in-brief How this brief was made: an AI model read the reports linked above and wrote this summary and analysis, which were published automatically. Published briefs are sampled every hour by an automated quality check; the editor verifies its findings and approves corrections, and corrected briefs carry a dated correction line. Stance labels are editorial classifications of how each outlet framed this story, assigned by the same model, not ratings of the outlets. We do no original reporting. Methodology: https://indianopinion.org/ai-use-policy/