Kerala Braces for Below-Normal Rainfall in August and September

Fast Summary

• Kerala received 1,190.5 mm of rain from June 1 to July 31, slightly below the average rainfall of 1,301.7 mm for this period (-9% deficit).
• Despite being within the IMD’s deviation range (±19%), forecasts suggest below-normal rainfall in August and September could result in a deficit southwest monsoon overall.
• The southwest monsoon is expected to enter a weak phase soon; heavy spells are likely but overall cumulative rainfall may remain low.
• The most recent rain distribution has been even without extreme events due to cross-equatorial flows rather of dominant westerlies.
• Reduced offshore trough activity along Kerala’s coast and weakened systems over the Bay of Bengal have limited intense spells so far this season.

Indian Opinion Analysis

Kerala’s slight shortfall in seasonal rainfall could hold broader implications for water resources, agriculture, and hydropower as the State heavily relies on monsoon rains across these sectors. IMD projections pointing toward a weak phase for the remaining southwest monsoon raise concerns about preparedness for potential deficits moving into critical months like august and September.

At present, while an equal distribution pattern helped avert extreme disruptions earlier this season, weakened atmospheric factors such as reduced westerly winds and poor offshore trough appearances along kerala’s coast diminish prospects for recovery through stronger spells later on. Policymakers may need coordinated efforts around contingency planning related to irrigation or reservoir management should lingering deficiencies persist through September.

Read More: Published – July 31, 2025