In April 2025, Lawrence Livermore National lab (LLNL) had its eighth successful ignition experiment and set another record for energy yield, delivering 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of energy to the target and further demonstrating that NIF can repeatedly conduct fusion experiments at multi-megajoule levels of energy output. They got over four times the energy out. They put 2.08 Megajoules in and got 8.6 megajoules out.
This is following the LLNL plan described and reported at Nextbigfuture in 2023.
The campaigns to increase NIF power to 2.6 MJ and to 3 MJ.
They could achieve 10-20MJ or more at 2.6MJ and 30+MJ with 3 MJ at NIF.
4-5X gain could be shown at 2.2MJ (2023-2025) [NOTE: 4X gain has now happened]
5-8X gain could be shown at 2.6MJ (est 2025-2027) and
over 10X gain could be shown at 3MJ (est around 2030).
The gain estimates could be very conservative if the science continues to improve targets. The target and other design plans are already being analyzed and prepared.
IF the improvements are as good as might be possible then 2.6 MJ could deliver 10-12X gain and 3MJ might give 20-30X gain. All of the estimates are theoretical. However, all of this would be years of hard work by hundreds of people. There have been many advancements and failed attempts. Ignition took ten years longer than was originally planned.
IF the results over-deliver designs and expectations, NIF cannot proceed past 120 MJ of returned power. There would be too much radiation and the facility would have to be completely changed.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
