Measles Outbreaks Could Surge Across US in 25 Years if Vaccination Rates Drop, Study Warns

Rapid Summary

• A new study, published in JAMA, uses modeling to predict measles cases in the U.S. over the next 25 years based on vaccination trends.
• Key findings:

– If vaccination rates drop by 10%, 11.1 million measles cases could occur across the country within 25 years.
– current vaccination rates might lead to 851,300 cases and a resurgence of endemic measles in about two decades.
– A sharp decline (50%) in vaccination coverage would result in an estimated 51.2 million measles cases during the same period.

• Declining immunization rates could also lead to increased rubella birth defects, polio-related paralysis, and post-measles neurological complications, with projections of up to 10.3 million hospitalizations and over 159,000 deaths from these preventable diseases combined.
• Measles outbreaks require herd immunity thresholds (95% population coverage) for prevention; however,U.S.-wide MMR vaccine coverage among kindergarteners has dropped from 95.2% (2019-2020 school year) to 92.7% (2023-2024). Texas reports being a high-impact region with unvaccinated individuals constituting most infections this year.
• Vaccination hesitancy fueled by misinformation regarding efficacy and safety is cited as a major factor behind falling rates.

!Measles rash

Indian Opinion analysis

India shares similar public health challenges surrounding vaccine hesitancy due to misinformation and distrust in medical practices – issues exacerbated during recent campaigns like COVID-19 vaccinations or polio eradication drives. While India achieved high compliance for routine childhood vaccines through government-backed efforts like Mission Indradhanush, vigilance remains essential given its vast population density facilitating disease spread.

The U.S.’s projected rise in preventable diseases due to declining vaccination serves as a cautionary tale for India’s immunization initiatives where even slight reductions may jeopardize major public health successes-like eliminating endemic polio or controlling diseases such as rubella and measles under National Immunization Programs.

To safeguard against future epidemics amid growing anti-vaccine sentiment globally facilitated via social media influence networks-India might look inward reinforcing cross-sector commitments toward reducing gaps disproportionately affecting rural/marginalized beneficiaries enhancing systemic reinforcement(s); additional local clarity combating deliberate fear-induced distortions ensure necessary inoculation universality occurs uninterrupted optimally sustainable bridging compliance toward equivalent benchmarks international-equivalent WHO strategic goals operational!

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