# Most economists expect RBI to raise repo rate in October

2026-09-20T23:38:06+00:00 | Governance | Indian Opinion Desk

Corroboration: 3 independent outlets

A majority of economists surveyed by Times of India expect the Reserve Bank of India to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points at the October monetary policy review, the first increase since February 2023. Consumer price inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the RBI's 4% target for the third consecutive month, while core inflation reached 4.2% and food inflation hit 5.95%. The one-year overnight indexed swap rate trades near 6%, signalling market expectations of tightening. The Hindu notes that with the repo rate at 5.25%, the real policy rate is approaching zero, making the monetary stance less restrictive than it appears. Externally, Brent crude has crossed $100 a barrel and a weaker rupee complicates the inflation outlook. Nomura forecasts rate hikes in both October and December. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will chair the MPC's next meeting.

## Indian Opinion Analysis

The Hindu risks framing the delay as a policy failure, emphasising the step toward zero real rates and its amplifying inflation risk from external shocks. Times of India leads with the economist consensus for a hike, giving equal weight to dissent within. NDTV Profit is single-source thin, naming only Nomura. Neither source reports the RBI's own reasoning beyond a neutral stance. The difference is emphasis: structural risk versus near-term market expectation. The MPC's October decision, data-dependent, will test whether the real rate cushion was enough or too thin to hold.

## Coverage

- thehindu.com (government critical) <https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/indias-real-rate-moment-the-cost-of-delay/article71488504.ece>
  Leads with cost-of-delay framing and structural inflation risk, criticises RBI timing
- timesofindia.indiatimes.com (neutral report) <https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/most-economists-see-rbi-raising-rates-in-october-policy/articleshow/134375349.cms>
  Leads with economist poll backing hike, reports range of views neutrally
- ndtvprofit.com (neutral report) <https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/fed-rate-hike-in-december-likely-more-possible-if-inflation-stays-high-rbi-also-set-to-raise-rates-nomura-12079375#publisher=newsstand>
  Single source, thin report quoting only Nomura forecast

Tags: consumer price inflation, Monetary Policy Committee, repo rate, Reserve Bank of India, Sanjay Malhotra
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