Nifty Outlook: Potential Dip to 23,900, Key Resistance at 24,850 – Rahul Ghose

Quick Summary

• Indian equity markets ended the week on a negative note; Nifty 50 closed at 24,363.30 (-0.95%), and Sensex at 79,857.79 (-0.95%).
• Key factors contributing to market weakness included global uncertainties, high interest rates, weak Q1 results in some sectors, and consistent foreign fund outflows (rs 16,000 crore by FIIs in August so far).
• Nifty ended below the critical psychological level of 24,500; next support levels are at 23,900-24,000 unless it reclaims above 24,850 for a bullish trigger (potential upside of ~600 points).
• Bank Nifty also saw weakness but managed recovery to close at 55,521 with supports identified at 55,125 and further down at 54,729. Upside resistance is seen above the level of 56,011.
• US tariff measures targeting Indian exports (textiles & gems) weighed on export-driven sectors and investor confidence globally amid risk-off sentiment.
• Sectors under pressure: IT due to global tech slowdown; mixed earnings across companies without broad-based recovery signs yet.
• Defensive plays remain more stable: FMCG and energy stocks along with large-cap names like HDFC Life and Titan are noted as safer options for tough markets.

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Indian Opinion analysis
The week’s downward trajectory in Indian equity indices underscores both global interconnectedness with international market conditions and vulnerabilities tied to external trade policies such as recent U.S.-India tariff tensions impacting specific exports like gems or textiles industries.

The persistent Foreign Institutional investors’ outflows throughout August reflect reduced risk appetite in India’s asset landscape-a flashing concern short-term-while domestic institutional buying has played a supportive but insufficient counterweight role so far.

The cautiously bearish technical setup demands disciplined investments while awaiting stronger cues domestically or externally: e.g., calmer inflationary trends driving low-rate expectations globally alongside confidence re-instilling fiscal/taxation decisions likely improving broader rally impetus around fundamentals espousing by bank consumer-financing והערכת safety-indices immaterial stabilisation-focused watch turnarounds clearer subsequent respects”