Stock Market Today: What RBI’s Big Moves Mean for NSE Nifty50, BSE Sensex Investors Now

The Indian stock market posted a sharp rebound in the first week of June, breaking a two-week losing streak. A surprise 50 basis point repo rate cut and a 100 basis point CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) injected fresh optimism into investor sentiment.

The NSE Nifty 50 ended Friday’s session 252 points or 1.02% higher at 25,003, breaching the psychological 25,000 level, while the BSE Sensex surged 747 points or 0.92% to close at 82,188.99.

“The CRR cut is expected to infuse Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system, injecting huge liquidity. This is likely to spur credit growth and boost sentiments in rate-sensitive sectors,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.

Market Outlook: Key Levels to Watch This Week
Analysts remain optimistic heading into the second week of June, citing strong domestic cues and bullish technical setups.
Nifty Outlook
Upside Target: 25,200–25,500
Support Zone: 24,700–24,750

“The index formed a bullish weekly candle with a lower shadow, indicating buying interest at lower levels,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Historical trends also support a bullish view. In the past 18 years, Nifty has ended higher 11 times in June, with an average gain of 4.19% during those years.

Bank Nifty Hits Fresh Record High
Bank Nifty led last week’s rally, delivering a 1.5% weekly gain and breaking out of a 31-session consolidation range. It also posted a classic cup pattern breakout, indicating further upside potential.
Upside Target: 58,700
Support Zone: 55,600–55,700

“Bank Nifty was the star of the week. Technically, all moving averages and RSI (currently at 67.45) indicate strong upside,” said Shah.

Sachdeva echoed the optimism: “Once the 25,200 resistance is breached, we see the index heading toward 25,700–25,800 in the coming week.”

Sectoral Leaders: Realty, Financials, and Metals Shine
Realty Rally Continues
The Nifty Realty index outperformed, gaining for the fourth consecutive week. With the RSI in the ‘super bullish’ zone, the sector looks poised for more gains.

Top Realty Picks:
DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Arkade Developers, Sobha Developers

Financial Sector Sees Breakout
Banking and financial indices like Nifty Bank, Private Bank, and Financial Services broke out of their ranges on high volumes, suggesting continued strength ahead.

Metal & Industrial Stocks Gain on Global Cues
The Nifty Metal index remains bullish, aided by firm global commodity prices and expectations of stimulus measures in China.

FII Activity: Short Covering on the Horizon?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), after three months of net buying, turned net sellers in June. However, the FII long-short ratio in derivatives stands at just 20.87%, pointing to an extreme short bias.

“This suggests the bulk of the bearish sentiment may already be priced in. Any sustained rally could trigger short covering and renewed FII buying,” Shah noted.

Key Triggers to Watch This Week
India’s Retail Inflation Data: Crucial for predicting future rate moves.
Global Tariff Announcements: Especially updates on US-India trade talks.
Macro Releases: Industrial output and manufacturing data expected.
Primary Market Action: Several IPOs and SME listings expected to keep the market busy.

Global Cues:
US Core CPI data
Eurozone Industrial Production
China’s Trade Balance

“China’s economic indicators and the outcome of US-China trade discussions will be closely watched and could influence global risk sentiment,” said Sachdeva.

Global Markets: Positive Cues From Wall Street and Asia
US indices ended Friday on a strong note after upbeat labor data:
Dow Jones: +443.13 pts (+1.05%) to 42,762.87
S&P 500: +1.03% to 6,000.36 (first time since February)
Nasdaq: +1.20% to 19,529.95

Asian markets also opened in green on Monday. Hopes of easing US-China trade tensions lifted sentiment.
Hang Seng: +0.86%
Nikkei 225: +0.91%
Kospi (South Korea): +1.71%
CSI 300 (China): Flat open
Topix (Japan): +0.58%
Kosdaq (South Korea): +0.46%
Australia: Markets closed for public holiday

China’s inflation data surprised positively, with CPI falling just 0.1% YoY in May, less than forecasted, while PPI dropped 3.3%.

Japan’s GDP contraction for Jan–Mar was revised lower to -0.2% annualized from -0.7%.
 

Read More – Stock Market Next Week: What Investors Should Know After RBI’s Rate Cut

Bulls in Control, But Caution Advised
Analysts suggest the Indian markets are at a crucial juncture. With a strong domestic tailwind from RBI’s policy move and historical patterns favoring June rallies, momentum is clearly with the bulls.

However, global events, inflation numbers, and FII flows will remain key deciding factors in whether the current rally sustains or stalls.