Robotaxi softer launch than I would have hoped but hitting the June and ideally June 1 will still be good. Invite instead of going supervised and unsupervised.
Dojo 2 getting to volume slipped from late 2025 (what Elon had said at All in Summit), but if they can hit 10X compute and cheaper even with 5-10 chips vs 1 B200. That would still matter.
Tesla has shared info given during a session with Wall Street analysts, led by IR head Travis Axelrod.
via Morgan Stanley’s new $TSLA note:
• Optimus: Tesla wants to offer investors tours of low-scale manufacturing by Q4 2025
• Tesla is still on track to launch its Robotaxi service in Austin. Initial fleet of 10-20 cars. Will be invite only at first.
• Tesla can currently make 12 Optimus robots at a time on the second floor of Fremont. Production capacity is currently 1k/month. Second-gen line is targeting 10k/month. Third-gen line 10x the second-gen line. Tesla wants to build thousands of Optimus robots by the end of this year.
• Neural nets for Optimus are far larger than the ones for their cars
• Tesla Dojo 2 (D2) comes out in 2026. Will be more efficient than Dojo 1 and cheaper than comparable Nvidia solution. Not expected to be “1 for 1” as competitive to Nvidia. Dojo 3 expected to come out in 2028. Company thinks it can narrow the performance cap for Application-Specific Integrated Circuit. Tesla believes that 10x-ing their computer and acquiring much cheaper chips could result in a major unlock.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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