Global fossil emissions fall 0.4% on Iran war, renewables

Global fossil-fuel carbon emissions fell 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tonnes, the third drop this century, but scientists from the Global Carbon Project said the decline is driven primarily by the US-led war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz rather than clean-energy progress. Oil emissions fell 1.9% and gas dropped 0.3%, while coal rose 0.6%, the research published in Earth System Science Data Discussions found. 'A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,' said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office.

India's emissions rose 4.4%, faster than the 3.5% average annual growth of the past decade. China dropped 0.9%, the US fell 1.3%, the European Union declined 1.5% and Japan fell 1%. Researchers said solar, wind and electric-vehicle deployment is not yet fast enough to lock in a peak. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C warming is now 150 billion tonnes, less than four years at current rates. Corinne Le Quere of the University of East Anglia warned a rebound is likely 'when the oil tensions go away'. The data was released at the UN's COP31 climate summit in Antalya.