Low-pressure area likely over Bay by October 23, IMD says

The India Meteorological Department has forecast a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around October 23, expected to move northwestwards and intensify. The system, emerging from a cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Thailand and Myanmar, which is likely to enter the North Andaman Sea on Wednesday (21 October 2026), may sustain an active northeast monsoon spell. Isolated very heavy rainfall of 11.5 to 20 cm is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Wednesday (21 October) and Thursday (22 October). Kerala and Mahe are under a seven-day heavy rainfall watch, while South Interior Karnataka has a four-day watch. In Telangana, eight districts are forecast to receive rain on Wednesday (21 October) amid a statewide 67 mm deficit from the normal 70.4 mm for the northeast monsoon season, the Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board is receiving about 6,500 tanker bookings daily due to the rain shortfall. In Andhra Pradesh, light to moderate rain is predicted in ten districts on Wednesday (21 October), with strong winds of 30 to 40 km per hour expected in parts of Telangana. The IMD has not yet specified the exact impact of the system on Odisha.

The developing system is expected to sustain an active spell of rain, while a trough extending from the circulation towards north coastal Andhra Pradesh organises clouds and showers across a broad swathe of the southern peninsula. Chennai is forecast to have an overcast day with rain and thunderstorms, followed by a brief lull before showers return around 10 pm on Wednesday (21 October). Bengaluru may remain partly cloudy with thunderstorms possible between 3 pm and 8 pm. Sunny intervals between showers, coupled with lingering October heat, keep humidity high. The IMD has issued a yellow alert for ten districts in Kerala on Wednesday (21 October), Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad and Malappuram, with isolated light rain expected in eight of these over the next three hours. Widespread rainfall is forecast across the state for the next three days.

Update, 21 October 2026: Mathrubhumi reports that rain over the past day caused waterlogging and traffic congestion on the national highway in Chathannoor, Kerala, and a young man was injured by lightning in Ezhukone. The outlet lists a yellow alert for ten Kerala districts on 21 October and forecasts widespread rain across the state for the next three days, though no alert has been issued for Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod.