Now Reading: IMD: El Nino to strengthen, post-monsoon may be dry
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IMD: El Nino to strengthen, post-monsoon may be dry
The Story in Brief
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that a strengthening El Nino could lead to a largely dry post-monsoon season over India, Business Today reports. The southwest monsoon ended on 30 September with 13% below-normal rainfall, according to Aaj Tak. IMD’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate El Nino is likely to intensify further through the end of 2026, Business Today adds.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral during the northeast monsoon (October-December), offering no counterbalance to El Nino’s drying effect. This period is crucial for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and parts of Karnataka, which depend on northeast monsoon rain. Aaj Tak on 2 October reported that a Western Disturbance and a low-pressure area will still bring rain to many states from 2 to 7 October, including north India which had been dry. Aaj Tak on 3 October and Business Today on 3 October both forecast rain for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh between 6 and 8 October.
Update, 4 October 2026: Business Today on 3 October adds a warning that a strengthening El Nino and neutral IOD could make the post-monsoon season largely dry, especially for south India. This climate risk frame is new and absent from Aaj Tak's earlier rain-focused forecasts. Business Today also confirms the 13% below-normal southwest monsoon figure.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Business Today leads with the El Nino warning and its implications for a dry post-monsoon, foregrounding a climate risk that Aaj Tak’s reports do not mention. Aaj Tak focuses on immediate rain forecasts from 2 to 7 October, treating the same post-monsoon period as wet rather than dry. Both outlets are neutral-report in tone, but they frame opposite sides of the same period: Business Today looks ahead to a deficit, Aaj Tak covers short-term active weather. The balanced reading is that short-lived rain systems may continue even as the larger El Nino-driven pattern points to a seasonal shortfall. Business Today says the key months are October to December for south India.
Coverage: 4 sources, 4 neutral
Sources (4): aajtak.in (neutral report), aajtak.in (2) (neutral report), businesstoday.in (neutral report), businesstoday.in (2) (neutral report)
This brief was synthesised by AI from the 4 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Methodology and corrections.
