Now Reading: RBI study uses survey data to fill state inflation gap during Covid
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RBI study uses survey data to fill state inflation gap during Covid
Researchers at the Reserve Bank of India have estimated state-wise urban inflation for four months during the Covid-19 pandemic when official data were unavailable. The study, by Purnima Shaw and R K Sinha, uses household inflation perceptions, three-month-ahead expectations and past inflation data from the RBI's Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH).
The estimates cover April and May 2020 and April and May 2021. Restrictions on movement and shop closures had disrupted price collection, preventing the compilation of state-level CPI indices. While the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released imputed all-India figures for April and May 2020, state-wise data remained unavailable, also making year-on-year inflation for April and May 2021 uncomputable.
When aggregated, the estimates tracked the official all-India urban CPI inflation series closely, with differences of 14 to 22 basis points across the four months. The researchers flagged limitations: household perceptions may not match the CPI basket, and survey centres may not represent entire states. The reconstructed figures could help bridge gaps in state-level inflation time series and support research under India's inflation-targeting framework.
Indian Opinion Analysis
The RBI's press release and the Business Standard article report the same working paper in almost identical terms. Both outlets present the methodology, data sources, limitations and potential uses without any discernible slant, reflecting a straight academic announcement from the central bank. The coverage is uniform, with no divergence in framing or emphasis. The paper notes that household inflation perceptions may not correspond directly to the CPI consumption basket, a caveat both sources reproduce faithfully. No political or ideological angle is introduced, the story remains technical throughout. The key watch item is whether the methodology will be applied to future data gaps, as the researchers suggest comparing the estimates with model-based forecasts.
Coverage: 2 sources, 2 neutral
Sources (2): business-standard.com (neutral report), rbi.org.in (neutral report)
This brief was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Methodology and corrections.
