Now Reading: FCNR deposits may hit $90-100 billion by August 31, analysts say
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FCNR deposits may hit $90-100 billion by August 31, analysts say
FCNR deposits may hit $90-100 billion by August 31, analysts say
Analysts now expect FCNR(B) deposits mobilised under the RBI's concessional swap scheme to reach $90-100 billion by the August 31 deadline, up from earlier estimates of $70-80 billion. Jefferies India revised its…
Analysts now expect FCNR(B) deposits mobilised under the RBI's concessional swap scheme to reach $90-100 billion by the August 31 deadline, up from earlier estimates of $70-80 billion. Jefferies India revised its forecast after banks raised $73 billion in just over three weeks, with FCNR(B) deposits accounting for $65.39 billion of that total.
Yes Bank chief economist Indranil Pan warned the swap facility's cost is substantial: for $65 billion of inflows, the RBI will have to provide $88 billion including interest in a single bullet repayment. Kotak Mahindra Bank raised its forecast to $75-80 billion. The RBI has shortened the scheme's deadline by a month, a move analysts say suggests the central bank expected the strong response.
Separately, Citigroup and Axis Bank have structured a leveraged arrangement where Axis issues standby letters of credit against FCNR deposits, allowing Citigroup to finance NRIs offshore. The rupee traded at Rs 95.74 per dollar but economists expect it to reach Rs 97 by year-end unless crude oil falls below $75-80 per barrel.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Both outlets report the same facts, FCNR(B) deposits have surged past earlier estimates and the RBI shortened the scheme's deadline, but frame them differently. The Economictimes story leads with Jefferies' raised forecast of $90-100 billion and includes economists' warnings about the swap facility's cost and limited rupee impact, giving space to both the opportunity and the fiscal burden. Livemint's piece leads with the Citigroup-Axis Bank partnership structure, foregrounding the leveraged cross-border trade mechanism the RBI has enabled without examining its costs. The Economictimes provides the fuller picture: the inflows are substantial, but they come with a bullet-repayment obligation that will require $88 billion of dollars including interest, and rupee pressure persists as long as oil stays above $75-80 per barrel. The real test is whether the RBI can manage the repayment when the deposits mature.
Coverage: 2 sources, 2 neutral
Sources (2): economictimes.indiatimes.com (neutral report), livemint.com (neutral report)
This story was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above.
Updated: this story now draws on 2 sources.
