Indian markets eye crude, Hormuz risks and Fed cues this week

Indian equities enter a data-light week with crude oil and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz dominating sentiment, analysts say. After snapping a two-week winning run, the BSE Sensex fell 0.62% and Nifty lost 0.83% last week. The US Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, due August 19, will be watched for policy signals. A hawkish Fed could pressure emerging-market flows and raise volatility in Indian stocks, Religare Broking's Ajit Mishra said.

Livemint reports that foreign portfolio investors (FIIs) are returning selectively, with consumer services, healthcare, durables and IT attracting inflows. IT saw its first positive FII inflow in 2026, helped by valuations after a deep correction. The Nifty IT Index has risen 15% in three months versus a 3% gain in the main index. However, the RBI's draft proposal to restrict NBFCs from offering revolving credit facilities has created uncertainty around lending flexibility for MSMEs and corporates, though market participants expect product redesigns rather than a major disruption.

Brent crude briefly crossed $90 a barrel on renewed concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. India's trade deficit widened to $87 billion in Q1FY27 from $67 billion a year earlier, highlighting the economy's vulnerability to external shocks. Domestic July CPI inflation hit a 19-month high of 4.45%, above the RBI's 4% target but within the tolerance band. Food inflation remained elevated at 5.52%.