Goldman Sachs sees AI investment at $1 tn in 2026, 1.4% of GDP by 2028

Goldman Sachs Research has projected global investment in artificial intelligence will reach about $1 trillion in 2026, rising from 0.9% of global GDP that year to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. The US alone is expected to account for $581 billion in AI investment this year, according to Livemint and NDTV Profit.

The estimate is broader than the commonly cited $794 billion capital expenditure by US hyperscalers, as it includes private companies, non-hyperscaler firms and firms outside the US. Cumulative AI investment since 2022 could hit $1.8 trillion by end of 2026, the bank said, cautioning that assumptions are difficult to verify and carry risk of double-counting.

Goldman Sachs noted that current AI spending indicators, including semiconductor equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, and GPU rental prices, are near the upper end of their range since 2022, signalling continued strength. Consensus expectations for 2027 capital expenditure may prove conservative, leaving room for upward revisions, it said.