Now Reading: Gold jumps 12% in a month, analysts see volatile path to record highs
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Gold jumps 12% in a month, analysts see volatile path to record highs
Gold jumps 12% in a month, analysts see volatile path to record highs
Gold has risen over 12% in August, climbing back above $4,600 an ounce on Thursday after the US Treasury announced plans to expand buybacks of older long-term bonds. The move reignited concerns…
Gold has risen over 12% in August, climbing back above $4,600 an ounce on Thursday after the US Treasury announced plans to expand buybacks of older long-term bonds. The move reignited concerns over dollar debasement and pushed investors towards hard assets. MCX gold October futures rose 0.28% to Rs 1,60,108 per 10 grams. Markets now await Federal Reserve chair remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for cues on interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 36% probability of a US rate hike in September.
Analysts said gold's rally is supported by a softer dollar, renewed ETF inflows and physical demand from China. However, Kotak Securities' Kaynat Chainwala said a sustained move to $5,500 per ounce is not the base case yet, and the path is likely to be volatile. Geojit's Hareesh V noted that domestic gold prices have corrected against overseas prices amid expectations the government may cut the import duty from 15%. On the technical side, Choice Broking's Aamir Makda said gold's key resistance is at $4,895, a breakout from which could push prices towards $5,000-5,500.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Gold has gained more than 12% this month, pushed by the US Treasury bond buyback plan and a softer dollar. The $5,500/oz target some analysts cite is not the base case yet. For that, markets would need a clear signal of Federal Reserve easing, a sustained dollar decline, or fresh US fiscal stress. The key data point ahead is the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, where Fed chair remarks could shift the interest-rate outlook. On the domestic side, a possible cut in gold import duty from 15% may alter local pricing. Investors should watch the Fed's September meeting: the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 36% probability of a rate hike, which would pressure gold.
Source: livemint.com
This brief was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
