Now Reading: India’s CAD may widen in FY27 but BoP surplus near $50 billion: SBI
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India’s CAD may widen in FY27 but BoP surplus near $50 billion: SBI
India’s CAD may widen in FY27 but BoP surplus near $50 billion: SBI
India's current account deficit (CAD) could widen in FY27, but strong capital inflows are expected to support the rupee and keep the balance of payments (BoP) in surplus of nearly $50 billion, according to an SBI Research report. The Hindu Business Line reported that the goods deficit widened sharply to $85.7 billion in Q1 FY27 from $68.9 billion a year ago, signalling pressure on the CAD.
Times Now reported that SBI Research expects the CAD to remain around 1% of GDP in FY27, supported by strong foreign currency deposits and the RBI's FCNR(B) deposit scheme, which has attracted about $57 billion so far. The report estimates total inflows from the scheme could reach $85 billion, strengthening forex reserves. The rupee is expected to appreciate gradually to Rs 95-95.50 per US dollar by end-August.
The report flagged global risks, including rising US Treasury yields and possible Brent crude prices hitting $100 per barrel, which could pressure India's import bill. The RBI's forex reserve diversification, with gold's share at a record 16.7% in FY26, was also noted as a buffer.
Indian Opinion Analysis
The two sources offer complementary but differently weighted views of the same SBI Research report. The Hindu Business Line leads with the widening goods deficit and CAD risk, giving a cautious tone that emphasises the trade side of the external account. Times Now leads with the $50 billion BoP surplus and the success of the FCNR(B) scheme, framing the story as a strong external position with limited risk from the early closure of the deposit window. Neither source adopts a critical stance toward the government or RBI. The measured middle ground is that while capital inflows are robust enough to keep the BoP in surplus, the sharp deterioration in the goods trade deficit is a real vulnerability, especially if crude prices rise. The key number to watch is the August-end FCNR(B) collection total, which will test whether the $85 billion estimate holds.
Coverage: 2 sources, 2 neutral
Sources (2): thehindubusinessline.com (neutral report), timesnownews.com (neutral report)
This story was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above. Methodology and corrections.
Updated: this story now draws on 2 sources.
