Now Reading: Crisil sees 6.6% growth, SBI projects 8% in first quarter
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Crisil sees 6.6% growth, SBI projects 8% in first quarter
Crisil expects India’s GDP growth to slow to 6.6% this fiscal, from 7.7% last fiscal, leaving the Reserve Bank of India flexibility on policy rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.…
The Story in Brief
Crisil expects India’s GDP growth to slow to 6.6% this fiscal, from 7.7% last fiscal, leaving the Reserve Bank of India flexibility on policy rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Its report said financial conditions improved in July as net foreign portfolio inflows rose to $4.2 billion from $0.5 billion in June. Liquidity surplus widened, bank credit growth stayed strong at 17.7%, and the 10-year bond yield fell to 6.77%. The rupee weakened to an average of Rs 95.8 against the US dollar.
SBI’s economic research department offered a stronger outlook, with its Nowcasting model projecting 8% real GDP growth in the first quarter of FY27. It cited credit growth of 19.3%, deposit growth of 15.4%, improving monsoon conditions and $52.3 billion mobilised through FCNR(B) deposits by August 13. The two reports therefore present sharply different growth expectations.
The Indian Opinion
The easy story is either that India is racing ahead or that a slowdown is imminent. Neither follows from these reports alone. SBI’s high-frequency indicators show demand and foreign funding holding up, while Crisil points to export pressure, producer costs, monsoon risks and West Asia-linked oil volatility. The RBI should weigh both, rather than treat one forecast as fact. The next GDP estimate, alongside inflation and rupee data, will test which view is closer.
Sources (2): economictimes.indiatimes.com, thehindubusinessline.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above.
Updated: this story now draws on 2 sources.
