RBI holds rates, activity slows, dollar inflows surge

The week in charts: Policy pause, moderating activity, dollar inflows

The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth straight review, raised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.6%, and trimmed its CPI inflation…

The Story in Brief

The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth straight review, raised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.6%, and trimmed its CPI inflation estimate to 5.0% from 5.1%. HSBC India’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.5 in July, its lowest since August 2021, while the Services PMI dropped to 53.3, a 4.5-year low. Both remain above the 50 expansion mark.

Indian banks mobilised about $28 billion in net fresh FCNR deposits under an RBI scheme to support the rupee. Promoter share pledging edged up, with 34 companies crossing the 90% pledged threshold. India’s 39-medal haul at the 2026 Commonwealth Games was its lowest since 1998, partly because only 10 sports were included.

The Indian Opinion

The week's data tells a story of caution, not crisis. The RBI's hold on rates and raised GDP forecast counters fears of an overheating economy, while the dip in PMI readings, still in expansion, should not be read as a collapse. Promoter pledging nudged up, but remains a niche stress. The real test will be the next inflation print: if CPI stays near 5%, the RBI's neutral stance may last longer than markets expect. Will the government's apprenticeship push be enough to offset the moderating private activity?


Source: livemint.com

This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.

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