Demonetisation ten years on: black money curb failed, say economists

On the tenth anniversary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 demonetisation, which invalidated 86% of currency in circulation, Mathrubhumi English and Scroll.in assess the move as a failure on its core objective of curbing black money. RBI data shows 99.3% of the Rs 15.42 lakh crore in specified notes returned to the banking system, contradicting the government’s expectation that large sums would be extinguished.

Economists Jayati Ghosh, C P Chandrasekhar and Parakala Prabhakar told Mathrubhumi that black money is held in assets or through formal financial channels, not cash. Scroll.in called demonetisation a ‘resounding failure’ and a forerunner of centralised decision-making. Orissa Post columnist Ajit Ranade noted that the stated objectives kept shifting over time, making it easier to claim achievement without settling whether original promises were fulfilled. A common thread across all three outlets is that the sacrifice endured by the public still lacks an honest accounting of what it accomplished.

The original announcement targeted black money, corruption, counterfeit currency and terrorism, subsequently the goals expanded to include tax compliance, formalisation and digital payments. Ten years on, no single agreed measure of success has emerged.

Update, 8 November 2026: Orissa Post columnist Ajit Ranade adds the framing of a national ordeal, noting that public trust in the PM’s decision was high at the time but that no honest accounting of the sacrifice exists. He highlights that the original objectives kept shifting, from black money and counterfeits to tax compliance and formalisation, making the move easier to defend without settling the original promises.