2026 El Nino could break economic loss records, scientists warn

Scientists are warning that the El Nino expected in 2026 may cause economic losses that surpass the USD 5.7 trillion lost in 1997-98, according to a study in the journal Science. The research shows that El Nino does not just disrupt weather in the short term, but can depress economic growth for years after it ends.

The study estimates that the 1982-83 El Nino caused a global income loss of about USD 4.1 trillion, and the 1997-98 event cost USD 5.7 trillion. Rising sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean suggest the 2026 El Nino could peak around December 2026 and affect weather into 2027. Climate change is expected to worsen such events, with potential global economic losses of up to USD 84 trillion this century under current climate targets.

For India, a strong El Nino poses risks to its monsoon-dependent agriculture, potentially reducing crop yields and raising food prices. Water shortages could also affect power generation, factories, and transport. Scientists and economists are treating the 2026 El Nino as more than a weather problem, warning of impacts on farming, inflation, and business.