Ex-Pakistan envoy’s 2021 Taliban warning proves prophetic

A 2021 warning by former Pakistani ambassador Husain Haqqani that Pakistan would regret its support for the Taliban has proved prescient, as Islamabad now faces an open conflict with the group it once helped install in Kabul. Writing in Foreign Affairs in July 2021, Haqqani argued that Pakistan's backing of the Taliban would become a strategic liability, leaving it more vulnerable to extremism and more isolated internationally. He warned that the Taliban might not stay deferential to Pakistan and that the US would not reconcile with the group, leaving Islamabad caught between an uncontrollable neighbour and global pressure to rein it in.

Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated sharply since the group retook power in August 2021. Islamabad accuses the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of operating from Afghan soil, a charge Kabul denies. The tensions have erupted into repeated cross-border clashes, including airstrikes by Pakistan on Kabul and other provinces in October 2025 and again in February 2026. Afghan forces retaliated both times, attacking Pakistani military positions. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif described the situation as an "open war" on February 27, 2026, fulfilling Haqqani's worst-case scenario.