Global public debt could hit 100% of GDP by 2029, warns CareEdge

Global public debt is on course to reach nearly 100% of gross domestic product by 2029, according to a CareEdge Global Ratings analysis. Advanced economies such as the US, Japan and France already carry debt levels far exceeding their GDP, while China has added substantially to its borrowing. The analysis warns that higher bond yields in rich nations will trigger capital outflows from emerging economies including India, forcing cuts in social and climate spending and higher taxes.

Borrowing costs have risen sharply after central banks ended the low-rate era. The US 10-year yield is averaging close to 5%, and even Japan, long insulated, is seeing yields climb. Ageing populations in the West, political resistance to pension reforms in France and Germany, and repeated US debt-ceiling standoffs make deficit reduction harder. Short-term financing by the US, Germany and Japan increases refinancing risk as rates stay elevated.