South Peninsula braces for wet spell as north-east monsoon nears

The India Meteorological Department has forecast a wet spell over the South Peninsula from Wednesday 30 September, as the south-west monsoon season ends and the north-east monsoon regime takes shape. Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall for six days from Thursday 1 October, while coastal Karnataka may see similar activity on 1 and 2 October. Isolated heavy rain is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for three days, South Interior Karnataka for four days, and Kerala and Mahe for four days from Wednesday 30 September.

A depression over the Bay of Bengal is moving along the Myanmar coast and will not directly affect the Indian mainland. The monsoon withdrawal line remains anchored along Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya, but the process is expected to gather pace from Wednesday 30 September, the official final day of the four-month south-west monsoon season. Cumulative rainfall from 1 June to 26 September stood at 749.2 mm, 12% below the normal of 853.4 mm.

Update, 30 September 2026: Two new reports from The Hindu Businessline on 28 and 30 September shift the focus from the earlier yellow alerts across northern and western states to an emerging wet regime over the South Peninsula. The later report details a Bay of Bengal depression weakening near Myanmar and Bangladesh and forecasts fairly widespread rainfall for Kerala, Mahe, coastal and south interior Karnataka from 1 October 2026. The monsoon withdrawal is expected to resume on 30 September 2026, the official end of the season.