Now Reading: India GDP growth likely slowed to 7.4% in Q1, Mint poll shows
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India GDP growth likely slowed to 7.4% in Q1, Mint poll shows
India's gross domestic product growth likely slowed to a four-quarter low of 7.4% in the April-June quarter, according to a Mint poll of 21 economists. The slowdown is attributed to disruptions from the West Asia war and a higher deflator. Economists' estimates ranged from 6.8% to 8.0%, with all but one expecting lower growth than the previous quarter. The official figure will be released on 31 August.
Sectoral trends were uneven. Industrial activity remained strong, services continued to support growth, but agriculture likely slowed due to a delayed monsoon. Input cost pressures rose, particularly in petroleum and manufacturing, economists said. Retail inflation averaged 3.93% in the quarter, up from 2.89% a year ago, while wholesale inflation jumped to 9.37%. If the poll projection is accurate, growth will exceed the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 7.0% for the quarter.
Economists warned of headwinds in coming quarters. CareEdge Ratings expects growth momentum to moderate in Q2 and Q3 as external shocks transmit through the economy. The RBI's latest projections for the full year stand at 6.7%, with Q2 at 6.4%, Q3 at 6.5%, and Q4 at 6.8%. A stronger Q1 figure could lead to an upgrade in these estimates.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Both sources rely on the same Mint poll and economist quotes, producing near-identical coverage with a neutral framing focused on data, sectoral splits, and RBI projections. Livemint.com, the original outlet, and TradingView, which republishes HT Digital content, both present the slowdown as moderate and domestic demand as resilient. Neither adopts a government-critical or sensationalist tone. The balanced reading confirms the consensus: growth is cooling but remains above RBI estimates, with risks from inflation and external shocks. Watch the 31 August official data release and whether it triggers an RBI forecast revision.
Coverage: 2 sources, 2 neutral
Sources (2): livemint.com (neutral report), tradingview.com (neutral report)
This brief was synthesised by AI from the 2 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Methodology and corrections.
Updated: this story now draws on 2 sources.
