Now Reading: India GDP likely slowed to four-quarter low of 7.4% in Q1
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India GDP likely slowed to four-quarter low of 7.4% in Q1
India's GDP growth likely slowed to a four-quarter low of 7.4% in April-June, according to a Mint poll of 21 economists. The projections range from 6.8% to 8.0%, with all but one…
India's GDP growth likely slowed to a four-quarter low of 7.4% in April-June, according to a Mint poll of 21 economists. The projections range from 6.8% to 8.0%, with all but one forecaster expecting a dip from the previous quarter. The official data is due on 31 August.
Sectoral trends point to uneven growth. Industrial activity remained strong and services continued to support the economy, but agriculture slowed due to the delayed monsoon. Economists cited higher input costs and a rising deflator as factors pulling down real GDP. Retail inflation averaged 3.93% in the quarter, up from 2.89% a year ago, while wholesale inflation jumped to 9.37%.
Despite the West Asia war disruptions, domestic demand held up better than expected, with only a partial burden passed to consumers. If growth comes in at 7.4%, it would beat the RBI's 7% projection. However, economists at CareEdge Ratings warned that Q2 and Q3 could face more headwinds from energy prices and supply-chain pressures.
Indian Opinion Analysis
The 7.4% print would mark four straight quarters of GDP expansion above 7%, a run that has kept India the fastest-growing major economy even as China slows. Yet the wide economist range, 6.8% to 8.0%, signals genuine uncertainty about the true pace. The Ministry of Statistics will release the official Q1 estimate on 31 August, and any figure above the RBI's 7% projection will put pressure on the central bank to hold rates longer, given that retail inflation at 3.93% is already near its 4% target ceiling. For markets, the number also shapes expectations for the FY27 Budget arithmetic in February.
Source: livemint.com
This brief was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
