Now Reading: Jefferies sees India GDP growth at 6.5-7% this fiscal
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Jefferies sees India GDP growth at 6.5-7% this fiscal
India is on track for real GDP growth of 6.5-7% in the current fiscal, with nominal GDP expected at 11-12%, brokerage Jefferies said in a report. It also projected corporate earnings growth…
India is on track for real GDP growth of 6.5-7% in the current fiscal, with nominal GDP expected at 11-12%, brokerage Jefferies said in a report. It also projected corporate earnings growth accelerating to 17% in the fiscal year beginning April 2027, from an estimated 14% now.
Jefferies cited strong bank credit expansion of 19.1% year-on-year in August and a pickup in SME and corporate lending as signs of economic momentum. It said domestic demand remains firm, with GST receipts up 14.8% and power demand growth accelerating to 9.4% during April-August.
The brokerage flagged energy risks from Middle East developments, with Brent crude at around $106 per barrel. It expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 50 basis points by end-2026 from the current 5.25%. Separately, a detailed ET analysis of 20 indicators noted Q1 GDP growth of 7.8% beat expectations, but flagged mixed signals on consumption, jobs, and rural demand.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Both Jefferies reports (Times of India, Economic Times) present a largely upbeat, data-driven outlook focused on credit, demand, and earnings acceleration, with only a brief mention of energy risks. The third ET article offers a more granular, sceptical view: it notes that while headline growth is strong, consumer sentiment in RBI surveys is weak, wage growth lags inflation, and rural non-durables output is sagging. The balanced reading is that official aggregates and high-frequency proxies show robust expansion, but household-level experience may be uneven, particularly in rural India. The next check will be RBI's October policy decision and Q2 corporate results.
Coverage: 3 sources, 1 government-critical, 2 neutral
Sources (3): timesofindia.indiatimes.com (neutral report), economictimes.indiatimes.com (neutral report), m.economictimes.com (government critical)
This brief was synthesised by AI from the 3 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry.
Updated: this story now draws on 3 sources.
