Monsoon may weaken after early September, models show

Extended-range weather models indicate India's southwest monsoon could weaken sharply after the first week of September, with a possible early withdrawal from extreme northwest India between September 10 and 20. India Today reports that much of the country may see subdued rainfall for the rest of the season, though East and Northeast India could continue receiving rain for another two weeks. The forecast suggests September could turn significantly drier, impacting regions that depend on late-season rain.

As of August 21, India's monsoon rainfall is 13% below normal, with 537.6 mm against a normal 619 mm, according to IMD data cited by India Today. The deficit is highly uneven: Haryana (-45%), Bihar (-40%), Andhra Pradesh (-40%), Punjab (-32%), and Karnataka (-25%) remain dry, while Odisha is 25% above normal. Another wet spell is building over central and eastern India, with heavy rain expected in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and the Northeast through late August, but this may not erase the broader deficit.

North India, including West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi, is also under heavy rain warnings for August 22. However, the forecast warns that a few days of heavy rain cannot reverse the seasonal shortfall, as several states still await their monsoon share. The monsoon's performance in September will be crucial for the overall seasonal total.