
An active low-pressure system over central India is driving fresh cloud formation and rainfall across the monsoon belt, according to INSAT-3DS satellite imagery and IMD analysis. The low-pressure area moved from west…
An active low-pressure system over central India is driving fresh cloud formation and rainfall across the monsoon belt, according to INSAT-3DS satellite imagery and IMD analysis. The low-pressure area moved from west Jharkhand to northeast Madhya Pradesh by Tuesday morning and is expected to shift west-northwestwards over the next 24 hours, sustaining showers across central and northern India.

However, weather models predict the monsoon will begin weakening after September 10, when the upper-level jet stream shifts south, allowing dry air into northwest and central India. This could trigger an early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northwestern India around mid-September. For Delhi-NCR, Wednesday is expected to bring only isolated thunderstorms with reduced widespread rainfall.
Southwest monsoon withdrawal is formally declared by the IMD based on five-day observations of rainfall, cloud cover and wind patterns over northwest India. The normal withdrawal date from extreme northwest India is 17 September, though it has arrived as early as 1 September in 2023 and as late as 6 October in 1961. The current system over central India is the same type of low-pressure disturbance that typically fuels active monsoon spells in August. If dry air incursion materialises after 10 September, actual early withdrawal would reduce already modest seasonal rainfall in states like Rajasthan and Gujarat, where cumulative deficits near 20% were recorded in prior recent years. The INSAT-3DS satellite used to spot this system was launched by ISRO in February 2024 to replace the ageing INSAT-3DR. The IMD updates its monsoon withdrawal forecast on 1 September, and that bulletin will be the next concrete signal to watch.
Source: indiatoday.in
This brief was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.