Nomura, HSBC see RBI hiking repo rate to 5.75%

Nomura expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 50 basis points, taking it to 5.75% by December 2026, NDTV Profit reports. The brokerage says India's trend inflation has moderated and inflationary pressures are not broadening significantly across the economy.

HSBC Global Investment Research expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points twice in FY27, reaching 5.75%, the Economic Times reports. HSBC cites Q2 FY26 GDP growth that beat the RBI's 7% forecast and inflation averaging over 5% over the next three quarters. It also expects the RBI to absorb Rs 5-6 lakh crore of excess liquidity through OMO sales. The report projects FY27 GDP growth at 7.2% and warns of moderation from a high base, weak sowing, and deficient rainfall. The RBI's next monetary policy committee meeting will decide the actual pace of rate increases.

Update, 30 September 2026: A Reuters poll cited by the Economic Times shows more than 60% of 61 economists expect a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50% at the RBI's 5 to 7 October meeting. ANZ Research's Richard Yetsenga told CNBC TV18 he expects three hikes totalling 75 basis points from October. The CNBC TV18 report also notes the banking system is in its best macroeconomic shape in recent memory.

Update, 30 September 2026: Bank of America Securities expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 100 basis points through the first half of 2027, taking the terminal rate to 6.25 per cent, the Times of India reports. BofA has moved its forecast for the first hike to October 2026 from December 2026 and expects a 25-basis-point increase at the October policy meeting.