Now Reading: Rupee falls 7 paise to 95.68 on oil, geopolitical worries
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Rupee falls 7 paise to 95.68 on oil, geopolitical worries
The rupee depreciated 7 paise to close at 95.68 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices and lingering geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Brent crude traded…
The rupee depreciated 7 paise to close at 95.68 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices and lingering geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Brent crude traded above $90 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest in two decades, tightening financial conditions for emerging-market currencies.
The Reserve Bank of India's decision to advance the closure of its concessional FCNR(B) swap facility to August 31 also added pressure. The facility has attracted nearly $57 billion in inflows, but fresh deposits will qualify only until the new deadline. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 2,535 crore on Monday. On the equity markets, the Sensex fell 492 points to 77,235 and the Nifty dropped 132 points to 24,154.
Brokerage Nirmal Bang, however, expects the rupee to remain stable, supported by the massive FCNR(B) inflows and the central bank's dollar absorption. It estimates the balance of payments swinging to a surplus of over $56 billion by year-end. But other analysts see the rupee moving toward 96.20-96.50 in the coming days, citing elevated oil prices, fading capital-flow support and global rate pressures.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Coverage of Tuesday's rupee movement splits along two frames. The Hindu and Livemint lead with the rupee's vulnerability: rising oil, geopolitical risk, the FCNR(B) deadline and U.S. bond yields as compounding negatives. Both cite analysts predicting further depreciation toward 96.50. The Economic Times, via Nirmal Bang's note, emphasises the flip side: $52.3 billion in FCNR(B) deposits, a projected balance-of-payments surplus of $56 billion, and systemic liquidity set to hit Rs 9 lakh crore by September. It frames the early closure of the swap facility as a sign of RBI's comfort with reserves, not a negative. The two accounts are not contradictory but complementary: short-term pressure vs. medium-term cushion. The measured takeaway is that while the rupee faces headwinds from oil and outflows, the RBI's reserves buffer and record deposit inflows provide a backstop that likely limits a disorderly slide. Watch whether Brent breaches $92 and whether FII selling accelerates this week.
Coverage: 4 sources, 1 pro-government, 3 neutral
Sources (4): thehindu.com (neutral report), government.economictimes.indiatimes.com (pro government), livemint.com (neutral report), thehindu.com (2) (neutral report)
This story was synthesised by AI from the 4 sources linked above.
Updated: this story now draws on 4 sources.
