
Paytm shares jumped 9 per cent on Monday to a fresh 52-week high after Bernstein raised its target price to Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,500, the first time the brokerage has set…
Paytm shares jumped 9 per cent on Monday to a fresh 52-week high after Bernstein raised its target price to Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,500, the first time the brokerage has set a target above the fintech firm's IPO price. The stock traded at Rs 1,557 on the NSE by 12.37 pm, after touching a high of Rs 1,569, against the previous close of Rs 1,441.60.
Bernstein retained its outperform rating, citing the potential impact of merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions from FY28 onwards. The brokerage assumes about 35 basis points MDR on a subset of UPI person-to-merchant transactions and expects Paytm to capture 3-4 basis points of incremental net payment margin. It raised its FY30 EPS estimate by around 30 per cent to Rs 106 and forecasts GMV to rise from Rs 30.9 trillion in FY27 to Rs 56.6 trillion by FY30. The government has said consumers will not be charged for UPI transactions.
The market's euphoria over Bernstein's UPI MDR call may be premature. While the brokerage models MDR from FY28, the government has only clarified consumers won't pay; it hasn't approved merchant fees. Anyone assuming UPI MDR is a done deal is ignoring regulatory history. Watch whether the RBI and NPCI issue any discussion paper on MDR in the next two quarters. Until then, this is a forecast, not a policy.
Sources (3): ndtvprofit.com, ndtvprofit.com (2), thehindubusinessline.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the 3 sources linked above.
Updated: this story now draws on 3 sources.