China treads tightrope between India, Pakistan after truce

India and Pakistan have agreed a ceasefire after trading accusations of cross-border strikes and civilian casualties, but the risk of renewed escalation remains high, with implications for regional stability. US President Donald Trump claimed credit for the truce, but an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post argues that China's restrained diplomacy reflects a strategic priority for de-escalation over opportunism, as a prolonged conflict threatens Beijing's geopolitical and economic interests in South Asia.

The latest military exchange included artillery fire and air strikes. Pakistan said it shot down five Indian warplanes, including three Rafale fighter jets, using Chinese-made J-10C fighters. If true, it highlights a regional arms race. Chinese social media cheered Pakistan's tactical gains, but Beijing's foreign ministry urged calm and restraint, recognising that instability on its border with India could harm China's own security.

The ceasefire does not resolve a brewing crisis over water: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, cutting off hydrological data and flood warnings to Pakistan. Pakistan relies on the Indus system for about 80 per cent of its agriculture. The opinion piece warns this "hydrological warfare" could put civilians at risk and destabilise the region further. China's balancing act is complicated by its partnership with India on issues such as BRICS and the Ukraine war.