Now Reading: S&P 500 at record high: history favours buying, says analysis
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S&P 500 at record high: history favours buying, says analysis
The S&P 500 hit a record 7,758 on August 7, gaining 13% in 2026. Investors worry if it is safe to buy at these levels. Warren Buffett's advice is to focus on…
The Story in Brief
The S&P 500 hit a record 7,758 on August 7, gaining 13% in 2026. Investors worry if it is safe to buy at these levels. Warren Buffett's advice is to focus on individual business earnings and rational prices, not market highs. History from J.P. Morgan (1988-2024) shows that buying at record highs has delivered average one-year returns of 13%, compared with 12% on any random day, Hindustan Times reports citing The Motley Fool. The average five-year return after record highs is 81% versus 75% on any random day.
But risks remain. The S&P 500 trades at 28 times earnings, above its five-year average of 24. FactSet Research expects 22% annual earnings growth through 2027. Potential interest rate hikes, the 2026 midterm elections, and disappointing corporate earnings could all hit stocks, The Motley Fool warns.
The Indian Opinion
Two lazy narratives circle this story: one that a record high signals an imminent crash, and another that history guarantees further gains. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio of 28 is above its five-year average, so it is not cheap. But J.P. Morgan data shows buying at highs has outperformed buying on random days over one to five years. Neither the bulls nor the bears have a perfect case. The real test is whether FactSet's forecast of 22% annual earnings growth through 2027 holds up. If it does, valuations may be justified. If it does not, expect a sharp correction.
Source: hindustantimes.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
