El Niño may become strongest in history, threatens Indian monsoon and economy

A powerful El Niño developing over the Pacific Ocean could become the strongest in living memory, with sea surface temperatures already more than 2°C above normal. The UK Met Office expects the anomaly to exceed 3°C later this year, an unprecedented level since records began in 1950. Scientists warn that if the event peaks by December 2026, 2027 could become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024.

For India, the immediate risk is to the southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall, and June 2026 already recorded a steep deficit across central, eastern and northeastern India. Agriculture depends on the monsoon for nearly half the country's net sown area, and weak rainfall can push up food inflation, strain water resources, and reduce rural demand. The Reserve Bank of India is particularly concerned about persistent food inflation limiting its ability to cut interest rates.

Researchers project that El Niño-driven losses from the 1997-98 event cost the global economy an estimated $5.7 trillion. A landmark study in Science warns that climate change is intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability, potentially causing $84 trillion in cumulative global losses this century. India's key question is whether the exceptional Pacific warming will worsen drought risks and trigger cascading effects on agriculture, prices, and the broader economy.