Now Reading: India’s weakest monsoon since 2015 raises food price risks
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India’s weakest monsoon since 2015 raises food price risks
The Story in Brief
India's June-to-September monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, the India Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday, 30 September. Only 42% of assessed districts had normal rainfall, while 38% were deficient, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. Food inflation rose to 5.95% in August, the highest in 2026.
A powerful El Nino, forecast to peak in November, threatens winter (rabi) crops and could keep food prices under pressure, NDTV Profit and Claims Journal report. The government has cut import duties on crude soybean and palm oil from 10% to 5% and on sunflower oil to zero from September 24, Moneycontrol reports. The finance ministry flagged upside inflation risks from climate, geopolitical and monetary headwinds in its monthly economic report on Thursday, 1 October, Reuters and Hindustan Times report.
Update, 1 October 2026: NDTV Profit reports the Department of Economic Affairs warned in its September Monthly Economic Outlook that India 'cannot take high growth for granted' amid El Nino risks, crude oil shocks and persistent household anxiety over jobs. The report noted upside inflation risks from erratic weather, global crude prices and geopolitical conflicts.
Indian Opinion Analysis
Coverage is uniform on the core data: the 12.6% deficit, the weakest monsoon since 2015, and the August food inflation figure of 5.95%. NDTV Profit and Claims Journal lead with the El Nino threat to winter crops, while Moneycontrol emphasises government policy buffers such as edible oil duty cuts. The finance ministry reports from Reuters and Hindustan Times focus on imported inflation risks from geopolitics and oil prices, with Hindustan Times adding wholesale inflation at 9.92%. NDTV Profit's latest DEA report warns India 'cannot take high growth for granted' amid El Nino and crude risks. The balanced reading is that the monsoon deficit is now a recorded fact, but the severity of its economic impact will depend on how El Nino develops and how effectively government measures contain food and fuel price pressures through the winter crop cycle.
The finance ministry's September Monthly Economic Review warns that geopolitical tensions, high oil prices and a strong El Nino could raise imported inflation and hurt winter crops.
Coverage: 7 sources, 7 neutral
Sources (7): ndtvprofit.com (neutral report), moneycontrol.com (neutral report), claimsjournal.com (neutral report), ndtvprofit.com (2) (neutral report), yahoo.com (neutral report), hindustantimes.com (neutral report), ndtvprofit.com (3) (neutral report)
This brief was synthesised by AI from the 7 sources linked above, so one read covers every framing they carry. Methodology and corrections.
