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India tops emerging market tracker for third month
India has retained the top rank in Mint's Emerging Markets Tracker for the third consecutive month, scoring 77.3 in July. It outpaced Vietnam (73.2) and Malaysia (73.1). India posted the second-best performance…
India has retained the top rank in Mint's Emerging Markets Tracker for the third consecutive month, scoring 77.3 in July. It outpaced Vietnam (73.2) and Malaysia (73.1). India posted the second-best performance in stock markets, GDP growth and manufacturing PMI, led by ₹20,200 crore in foreign portfolio inflows in July, the first positive since February.
However, the lead over peers narrowed from June as the rupee weakened 0.9% month-on-month, inflation rose to 4.5%, and manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.5. Export growth of 19.5% was driven by price rises. The RBI closed its FCNR-B deposit scheme a month early, signalling comfort with the rupee at Rs 95.6 per dollar. GDP data for the April-June quarter is due later this week, with economists forecasting growth of 7.0-7.3%.
RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra noted in policy minutes that rising food and fuel prices may need policy tightening.
Indian Opinion Analysis
The Mint Emerging Markets Tracker uses seven high-frequency indicators to rank economies monthly. India’s lead has narrowed due to rising inflation and a weaker rupee, though strong portfolio inflows and RBI’s hawkish stance on rates have cushioned the score. The GDP data for the April-June quarter, due this week, will test whether growth indeed moderates to 7.0-7.3% from the previous 7.8%. Food price risks from El Niño remain the key variable for inflation, which the RBI has flagged as needing possible tightening if broad-based. The next monetary policy review on 4 October will show if the central bank holds rates or shifts stance.
Source: livemint.com
This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
