Now Reading: NITI Aayog warns AI may cut tech jobs to 6 million by 2031
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NITI Aayog warns AI may cut tech jobs to 6 million by 2031
Nearly 3 million jobs in India are at risk from artificial intelligence over the next five years, according to estimates from NITI Aayog and academic experts. The government think-tank projects that without…
Nearly 3 million jobs in India are at risk from artificial intelligence over the next five years, according to estimates from NITI Aayog and academic experts. The government think-tank projects that without large-scale reskilling, India's tech workforce could shrink from 7.5-8 million in 2023 to 6 million by 2031. Customer experience jobs may also fall from 2-2.5 million to 1.8 million in the same period.
India's top five IT firms, TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra, reduced their combined workforce by 6,981 in FY26, reversing an increase of 12,798 the previous year. TCS alone cut 23,000 jobs. Bhaskar Chakravorti of Tufts University estimates that gross job losses could reach nearly 3 million, representing about $12 billion a year in lost wages.
Corporate AI adoption remains uneven. A study of India's top 35 listed companies found only three in the pilot stage of AI implementation, while 19 were operational and 11 were scaling use. Over 60% of firms surveyed have AI only at pilot stage despite years of investment, and 57% report no measurable return on investment.
Indian Opinion Analysis
The projected decline of 1.5-2 million tech jobs by 2031 comes against a backdrop where India's IT sector employs roughly 5.4 million people directly, making it the country's largest formal-sector employer. The 6,981 headcount reduction at top firms in FY26 is the first aggregate contraction in years, signaling a structural shift rather than a cyclical downturn. Historically, Indian IT added 1.5-2 lakh jobs annually during growth years. The NITI Aayog's estimate that 60% of formal sector jobs are susceptible to automation implies the impact may extend well beyond IT to banking, retail and manufacturing. The key variable is reskilling velocity: India's current skilling infrastructure, including the government's Skill India Mission and corporate training budgets, has historically retrained less than 5% of the workforce annually. The next milestone to watch is the FY27 hiring numbers from the top five IT firms, which will indicate whether the contraction deepens or stabilizes.
Source: rediff.com
This brief was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
