Operation Sindoor exposed limits of Pakistan nuclear deterrence: US report

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal did not deter India’s military strikes during the May 2025 Operation Sindoor, exposing the limits of nuclear deterrence, according to a report by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The US-based body said Pakistan’s strategic establishment confronted a “difficult reality” that nuclear weapons “have limits” and failed to prevent the crisis or provide a way out once hostilities began.

The report noted that Pakistan’s first anniversary of the conflict, Marka-e-Haq, was elevated into a prominent state narrative, while the anniversary of its 1998 nuclear tests received little attention in May 2026. Public displays focused on conventional military achievements, with nuclear weapons “conspicuously absent” from imagery, reflecting a deliberate shift in state messaging.

The report questioned Pakistan’s “full-spectrum deterrence” doctrine, calling its promise “huge but false”. It said the crisis showed that nuclear weapons not only failed to deter but also constrained Islamabad’s response options due to escalation risks. Pakistan has since increased defence spending and established a new Army Rocket Force Command, signalling a growing emphasis on conventional capability.