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Pakistan most likely first to use nukes, says analyst
Geopolitical commentator Professor Jiang Xueqin has predicted that Pakistan is the country most likely to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict. Speaking on a podcast uploaded on August 11, Jiang…
The Story in Brief
Geopolitical commentator Professor Jiang Xueqin has predicted that Pakistan is the country most likely to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict. Speaking on a podcast uploaded on August 11, Jiang described Pakistan as ‘weak, disorganised and corrupt’, arguing its command-and-control systems could fail in an emergency. He ruled out immediate nuclear war but pointed to the asymmetry between India’s declared No First Use doctrine and Pakistan’s deliberate ambiguity. Jiang later admitted to journalist Mehdi Hasan that he is not actually a professor. According to SIPRI data, India has 190 warheads (12 deployed in 2025) while Pakistan has around 170, none deployed. Pakistani leaders have repeatedly invoked nuclear threats in crises, though recent official statements from Defence Minister Asif and PM Sharif have sought to downplay the option.
The Indian Opinion
The narrative that Pakistan is a weak, disorganised state liable to lose control of its nukes is as old as its bomb. But Jiang’s prediction, hyped on a podcast, leans on a caricature rather than evidence of failing command-and-control. Islamabad has not deployed warheads in 2025, and its leaders, including Asif and Sharif, have publicly ruled out imminent use. The real story is the asymmetry of doctrines: India’s declared No First Use versus Pakistan’s studied ambiguity. The question India’s strategic community must now press is not who might blink first, but whether either side has moved closer to a usable tactical nuclear weapon, the threshold that truly erodes deterrence.
Source: indiatoday.in
This story was synthesised by AI from the source linked above.
